PERMANENT RECORDREGISTRO PERMANENTE · LEDGER-SCHEMA-1.0
LEDGER — 2026-07-15
Commit recordRegistro de commit
- sha256
- a35ee913c5209a94abed4f0099a45d8959846354d53a6562c4f9ffa58b2b9858
- sealed_at
- 2026-07-15T18:23:04-04:00
- published_at
- 2026-07-15T16:05:00-04:00
- schema
- LEDGER-SCHEMA-1.0
RegimeRégimen
Regime:Régimen: risk_on
The sealed tableLa tabla sellada
Rendered verbatim from the sealed file. All 16 rows are included, Pass rows are never filtered out.
Renderizada tal cual del archivo sellado. Las 16 filas están incluidas, las filas Pass nunca se filtran.
LONG
| TICKER | CES | TIER | KVD | CAT | DAYS-CATALYSTDÍAS-CATALIZADOR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $ELVA | 60 | Quality | compromiso de demanda de su mayor cliente (Amazon) | partnership | 0 |
| $AEHR | 54 | Quality | guía FY27 + bookings/backlog burn-in IA (emergente) | guidance_raise | 1 |
| $BLK | 42 | Quality | crecimiento orgánico de comisiones base + entradas netas | earnings_beat | 0 |
| $MANE | 25 | Marginal | de-risking clínico de la indicación femenina (VDPHL01) | clinical_data | 0 |
| $ASML | 24 | Marginal | outlook FY de ventas netas (litografía EUV/IA) | guidance_raise | 0 |
| $GEVO | 22 | Marginal | trayectoria de EBITDA aj. / monetización de carbono 45Z | guidance_raise | 0 |
| $SHMD | 21 | Marginal | order intake / backlog equipo IA — off-driver vs ingresos | guidance_raise | 1 |
| $ERNA | 19 | Marginal | validación de plataforma ERNA-101 — preclínico | clinical_data | 0 |
| $RDW | 17 | Marginal | backlog/win-rate de defensa — inmaterial vs estimaciones | contract_win | 0 |
| $BABA | 13 | Pass | monetización de Qwen/nube — sin delta propio medido | regulatory | 0 |
SHORT
| TICKER | CES | TIER | KVD | CAT | DAYS-CATALYSTDÍAS-CATALIZADOR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $WNC | 69 | Prime | capital structure / forced capital need + EBITDA generation | offering_dilution | 0 |
| $ELV | 60 | Quality | underlying operating margin recovery + benefit expense ratio trajectory | margin_compression | 0 |
| $PGR | 44 | Quality | policies-in-force growth + combined ratio in a softening auto pricing cycle | kpi_deterioration | 0 |
| $PXED | 35 | Marginal | new-student enrollment growth / digital enrollment funnel | guidance_cut | 0 |
| $CBIO | 22 | Marginal | share count / dilution & cash runway | offering_dilution | 0 |
| $CAG | 12 | Pass | organic net sales growth + FCF / dividend coverage | earnings_miss | 0 |
KVD notesNotas KVD
$WNC — Prime — CES 69
Commenced a $100M (+$15M) convertible senior notes offering due 2032 (7/14 16:04 ET 8-K) that EMBEDS a preliminary Q2 profit warning: net sales $413-421M (-8/-10% YoY), net loss $23-26M, adjusted EBITDA turning NEGATIVE. Required a Fifth Amendment to the credit agreement to permit the new debt; follows the S&P downgrade to B-/CCC+. Debt $531M vs $548M market cap.
$ELVA — Quality — CES 60
15-jul pre-mkt: acuerdo comercial con Amazon + warrants por hasta 13.88M acciones que vestean con compras acumuladas de $280M; despliegue de Infinity en manejo de materiales, opcionalidad en robótica/almacenamiento.
$ELV — Quality — CES 60
Q2 print (7/15 pre-mkt): adj EPS $7.45 beat $6.21 and FY26 guide RAISED to 'at least $27.00' — but adjusted operating margin collapsed to 3.6% from 5.0% (-140bps), ~$0.80 of the beat was a below-the-line benefit, medical membership fell 469k sequentially, and the $0.25 FY raise off a $1.24 quarterly beat implies a ~$1.00 H2 reduction. Three desks RAISED PTs to $465-492 on 7/13-7/14.
$AEHR — Quality — CES 54
Q4 FY26 (14-jul AH): EPS aj. $0.11 vs -$0.01 est; guía FY27 $130-150M vs consenso $85.1M (+64%); bookings récord $60.7M (+447% a/a), backlog efectivo $100.6M; AI+SiPh >80% de ingresos Q4.
$PGR — Quality — CES 44
June/Q2 results (7/15 08:16 ET). The exit month is the tell: June combined ratio 90.0 vs 86.6 (+3.4 pts), net income -31%, NPW growth decelerated to +3% (vs +5% Q2, +6% Q1, +12% FY25); PIF growth +7% from +9%. Q2 EPS $5.67 beat ~$4.58 but carried $604M of realized gains. JP Morgan downgraded to Neutral, PT $250, on 7/14.
$BLK — Quality — CES 42
15-jul pre-mkt: Q2-26 EPS aj. $13.91 vs ~$12.65 est; ingresos $7.084B (+31% a/a) vs ~$6.8B; AUM cruza $15.3T por primera vez; entradas netas $192B vs ~$150B consenso; crecimiento orgánico de comisiones base 10%.
Verify
The reader does not trust; the reader checks.
El lector no confía; el lector verifica.
$ curl -sO https://rcacatalyst.vip/ledger/2026-07-15.json
$ sha256sum 2026-07-15.json
a35ee913c5209a94abed4f0099a45d8959846354d53a6562c4f9ffa58b2b9858
This hash was published before the opening bell,
at 18:23:04 ET, and has not changed. $ curl -sO https://rcacatalyst.vip/ledger/2026-07-15.json
$ sha256sum 2026-07-15.json
a35ee913c5209a94abed4f0099a45d8959846354d53a6562c4f9ffa58b2b9858
Este hash se publicó antes de la campana de apertura,
a las 18:23:04 ET, y no ha cambiado. Disclaimer & immutabilityDescargo e inmutabilidad
This is an impersonal publication of general and regular circulation. It is not investment advice, is not tailored to any person, and creates no advisory or fiduciary relationship. No entry, exit, or position sizing guidance is given.
IMMUTABILITY: rows are never edited after publication. Corrections are appended below, dated and timestamped. The original text and the original hash remain.
Esta es una publicación impersonal de circulación general y regular. No es asesoría de inversión, no está adaptada a ninguna persona, y no crea relación de asesoría ni fiduciaria. No se da indicación de entrada, salida ni tamaño de posición.
INMUTABILIDAD: las filas nunca se editan después de publicadas. Las correcciones se anexan abajo, fechadas y con timestamp. El texto original y el hash original permanecen.
POST-CLOSE ENGINE REVIEW — appended REVISIÓN DEL ENGINE POST-CIERRE — anexada 2026-07-15T19:31:07-04:00
Written after the close by the RCA Engine pass over the labeled outcomes. Appended; the sealed file, its hash and every section above are untouched.
Escrita después del cierre por el repaso del RCA Engine sobre los resultados etiquetados. Anexada; el archivo sellado, su hash y cada sección de arriba permanecen intactos.
$AEHR — Quality — CES 54
The Quality-tier row on AEHR scored an FY27 guidance and bookings-backlog KVD labeled emergent, at CES 54.3. The stock gapped 36% at the open and closed the session down 10.6%, raw, not benchmarked against SPY. The gap read as large in isolation, but AEHR has traded with unusually high volatility recently; measured against the ticker's own typical daily range, the move was closer to 2.8x, not the multiple that forces sustained buying once the initial short-covering pop fades. Reading gap size as a flat percentage rewarded a volatile name for its volatility alone, and the model was not distinguishing the two.
LONG book
The Engine proposed gating on materialization_horizon: capping any row whose catalyst is multi-quarter, or whose horizon is unrecorded, when the opening gap is large relative to prior ATR, and tightening the golden-signature pre-filter so a close-location projection short of 0.70 could not reach Quality. The diagnosis underneath the proposal, that a large gap on a long-dated or unclassified-horizon catalyst front-loads the revaluation at the open, matches the pattern the AEHR case exposed.
LONG book
Separately, a sufficiently large estimate beat could override a fade-risk warning by itself, even when the session's move was already reflected in the opening price. A beat on the company's own numbers does not by itself mean a buyer remains at the open.